15C – Interview with Josh Miller. Have We Been Wrong About the Hot Hand Effect for 30 Years?

A discussion with Josh Miller, Assistant Professor of
Decision Sciences at Bocconni University, about his and Adam
Sanjurjo’s recent work which has reversed the findings of 30
years of research on performance streaks in sports. Their work
provides pretty convincing evidence that the hot hand is not a
fallacy or illusion after all. I try (and fail) to explain
the sampling bias they identified in my own words. In addition we
discuss performance under pressure, how athletes know a teammate
is hot or not, slumps and the future of research in this area.


 


More information about my guest:


http://didattica.unibocconi.eu/mypage/index.php?IdUte=111643&cognome=MILLER&nome=JOSHUA%20BENJAMIN&urlBackMy=


 


Articles/links:


Is it a Fallacy to Believe in the Hot Hand in the NBA Three-Point
Contest?


Surprised by the Gambler's and Hot Hand Fallacies? A Truth in the
Law of Small Numbers


Collection of reactions to Josh and Adam’s papers


 


More information:


http://perceptionaction.com/


My Research Gate Page (pdfs of my articles)


My ASU Web page


Podcast Facebook page (videos, pics, etc)


Twitter: @Shakeywaits


Email: robgray@asu.edu


 


Credits:


The Flamin' Groovies - Shake Some Action


Lo Fi is Hi Fi - I’m on a Talk Show


Mark Lanegan - Saint Louis Elegy


via freemusicarchive.org