Dynamic Modelling of Child Mortality in Developing Countries: Application for Zambia

In this paper, we analyse the causes of under five mortality in
Zambia, with a particular emphasis on assessing possible
time-variations in the effects of covariates, i.e. whether the
effects of certain covariates vary with the age of the child. The
analysis is based on micro data from the 1992 Demographic and
health Survey. Employing a Bayesian dynamic logit model for
discrete time survival data and Markov-Chain Monte Carlo methods,
we find that there are several variables, including the age of the
mother and the breastfeeding duration whose effects exhibit
distinct age-dependencies. In the case of breastfeeding, this age
dependency is intimately linked with the reasons for stopping
breastfeeding. Incorporating such age dependencies greatly improves
the explanatory power of the model and yields new insights on the
differential role of covariates on child survival.