Zerlegung ökonomischer Zeitreihen: Ein deterministischer und stochastischer Ansatz

The paper discusses a new seasonality hypothesis which is one part
of a weighted regression approach for the decomposition of a time
series into a trend, a seasonal component and an irregular
component. It is shown that there exists a regression formulation
leading, as in the descriptive approach in Schlicht (1981), to a
unique decomposition withouit having recourse to initial values. It
turns out that both solutions to the descriptive regression are
conditional expected values in the stochastic specification. The
decomposition as well as predciction are illustrated by examples