A Turning Point in Gender Bias in Mortality?

More than 10 years ago, Amartya Sen estimated than some 100 million
women are 'missing' as a result of excess female mortality in parts
of the developing world, most notably South Asia, China, West Asia,
and parts of North Africa (Sen, 1989; Sen 1990). Coale (1991) and
Klasen (1994) used more precise demographic techniques and arrived
at figures that varied between 60 million (Coale) and 90 million
(Klasen). All three estimates confirmed the enormous toll excess
female mortality was exacting on women in these parts of the world.
All these estimates 'missing women' were based on demographic
information of the 1980s and early 1990s. Since then, there has
been considerable speculation about current trends of gender bias
in mortality with some observers suggesting a falling intensity
while others predicted the opposite (e.g. Klasen, 1994; Das Gupta
and Mari Bath, 1997; Dreze and Sen, 1995; Mayer, 1999; Croll,
2000). Figure 1 shows recent projections by the United Nations
Population Division of the sex ratio in the world and in the
regions where males outnumber females. These estimates suggest that
the sex ratio in the female deficit regions, after rising steadily
since 1960, is estimated to peak in about 1985 and then are
believed to decline quite sharply. Given the high share these
regions have in the world's total population, a turning point in
the global sex ratio, after a similar rise since 1960, is also
estimated for 1995.