Immigration and educational spillovers: evidence from Sudeten German expellees in post-war Bavaria

This paper analyses long-term effects of forced WWII migration on
educational outcomes. Specifically Sudeten German expellees in
post-war Bavaria coming from highly industrialized Sudetenland
(Czechoslovakia) had strong preferences for higher secondary
schooling, especially in form of a practical, business-related, and
general education school. As a result they became actively engaged
in the development of post-war middle track education (Realschule,
Fachschule). Employing county-level data on student numbers and
graduates of secondary education, empirical analysis including
ordinary least squares, instrumental variable, and
differences-in-differences models reveals that counties housing a
higher share of Sudeten Germans after the war are significantly
associated with higher educational development some 20 years later.
An increase in the share of Sudeten Germans by 1 percentage point
increases the share of children (graduates) in middle track
education by at least 0.8 (0.1) percentage points, respectively.
Calculations suggest that these effects are not mechanically caused
by Sudeten Germans and their children demanding education, but are
the actual result of educational spillovers to the local
population.